Betting on underdogs in sports is one of the most exhilarating yet challenging strategies in sports wagering. While most bettors focus on betting favorites, those who bet on underdogs often look for higher payouts and a more rewarding risk-to-reward ratio. However, betting on underdogs requires careful analysis, a deep understanding of the sport, and strategic betting practices. In this article, we’ll explore how to bet on underdogs, key strategies, and tips for identifying value in sports betting, particularly for newcomers and experienced players alike.
Understanding Underdogs in Sports Betting
Before diving into strategies for betting on underdogs, it’s essential to understand what it means to bet on an underdog. In sports betting, an underdog is a team or individual considered less likely to win than their opponent, often reflected in higher odds. These odds represent the bookmaker’s estimate of the probability of that underdog winning. Underdogs tend to have a less favorable outcome according to the betting market, but their potential for higher payouts attracts bettors willing to take on greater risk.
Underdog betting is popular because the rewards can be substantial, but it also carries inherent risk. Betting on underdogs is a long-term strategy requiring patience, keen observation, and a strong understanding of team dynamics, statistics, and historical performance. In this article, we will guide you through the best practices for betting on underdogs and how to maximize your chances of success.
What Makes a Team or Player an Underdog?
In most sports, underdogs are teams or players that are perceived as having a lower probability of winning based on certain factors. These factors include, but are not limited to:
- Team Performance: If a team has been underperforming in recent games or seasons, they may be labeled an underdog.
- Player Injuries: If key players are injured or unavailable, bookmakers may shift the odds in favor of their opponents.
- Historical Matchups: Some teams or athletes historically perform poorly against their upcoming opponents.
- Public Perception: Teams that lack media attention or fan support may be viewed as underdogs, even if their actual performance metrics suggest otherwise.
While these factors influence betting odds, they also present opportunities for experienced bettors who know how to spot discrepancies between a team’s true chances and the public perception reflected in the betting market.
Key Strategies for Betting on Underdogs
Betting on underdogs is not just about placing a bet on the team with the higher odds. Instead, it involves finding value bets where the odds offered by sportsbooks do not accurately reflect the underdog’s true chances of success. Here are some key strategies to help you bet on underdogs effectively:
1. Focus on Value Betting
The key to betting on underdogs is finding value bets—wagers where the odds offered by the bookmaker are greater than the underdog’s true probability of winning. Value betting requires calculating the expected value (EV) for each bet you place. The expected value is the amount you expect to win (or lose) per bet, taking into account the odds and the probability of a given outcome.
For example, let’s say you believe an underdog has a 40% chance of winning a match, but the odds offered are +250. This means you would win $250 for every $100 bet if the underdog wins. To calculate the expected value (EV), multiply the probability by the amount you could win and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you risk:
EV = (Probability of Winning * Payout) - (Probability of Losing * Bet Amount)
In this case, the EV would be:
- EV = (0.40 * 250) - (0.60 * 100) = $100 - $60 = $40
With a positive expected value, betting on the underdog in this scenario would be a profitable strategy in the long term.
2. Understand the Sport and Analyze the Matchup
To successfully bet on underdogs, you need to have a deep understanding of the sport you’re betting on. This includes not only the teams and players but also factors such as playing styles, recent performance, and matchups. For example, in football, a team might struggle against a certain type of opponent (e.g., a strong rushing defense), even if they’re generally a good team.
Advanced bettors analyze statistics such as:
- Head-to-Head Records: Some underdogs may perform better against certain teams due to historical matchups, even if they’re not favorites in the general market.
- Team Strengths and Weaknesses: Analyze the offensive and defensive strengths of both teams. An underdog might have an advantage in areas where their opponent is weak.
- Recent Form and Momentum: Teams in strong form or on winning streaks may be undervalued in the market, providing an opportunity to bet on them as underdogs.
- Injuries and Suspensions: Injuries or suspensions can drastically affect the odds. Sometimes, public perception overreacts to an injury, making the underdog a good value bet.
By carefully studying these factors, you can gain an edge over the market when betting on underdogs.
3. Use Betting Systems to Manage Your Bankroll
Managing your bankroll is critical when betting on underdogs, as they can be inconsistent. Even when you’re betting on value, underdogs don’t win every time, and it’s important to protect your funds. One useful betting system is the Kelly Criterion, which helps you determine the optimal bet size based on the probability of winning and the odds offered.
The formula for the Kelly Criterion is:
Kelly % = (bp - q) / b
Where:
- b = decimal odds minus 1 (e.g., +250 odds would be 2.50 - 1 = 1.50)
- p = the probability of winning (expressed as a decimal, e.g., 40% is 0.40)
- q = the probability of losing (expressed as a decimal, e.g., 60% is 0.60)
The Kelly Criterion suggests how much of your bankroll to bet on a particular outcome. For example, if the Kelly % is 10%, it means you should wager 10% of your current bankroll on that bet.
4. Spotting Undervalued Underdogs: Timing Your Bets
Underdogs often get undervalued, especially early in the betting process. Sometimes, bookmakers offer odds that don’t reflect the true probability of an underdog winning. This can be due to overreaction from the public, recent losses, or media hype surrounding the favorite.
Betting early can be an effective strategy for catching undervalued odds. Look for signs that the market is overlooking certain factors that favor the underdog, such as:
- Injury updates that aren’t widely known yet
- Recent form and momentum that may not be reflected in the odds
- Public bias that skews betting patterns in favor of a popular team
By identifying these moments, you can place your bets at more favorable odds before the market adjusts.
5. Avoid Emotional Bets: Stay Objective
One of the most important tips for betting on underdogs is to avoid letting emotions drive your bets. While it’s tempting to bet on your favorite team or player, emotional betting can cloud your judgment and lead to poor decisions. Instead, focus on objective analysis and betting strategies based on facts, statistics, and probabilities.
Fun Facts About Betting on Underdogs
Betting on underdogs has its appeal, but there are some fun facts that may help you better understand the nature of underdog bets:
- In major sports leagues, underdogs win more than expected. In the NFL, for example, underdogs cover the spread around 50-55% of the time.
- Underdog betting can lead to significant payouts. If a 10-point underdog wins a game, the payout can often be 3:1 or higher.
- Some of the most famous upsets in sports history were underdog victories, including the “Miracle on Ice” in 1980 when the U.S. Olympic hockey team beat the Soviet Union.
Conclusion: Mastering the Art of Betting on Underdogs
Betting on underdogs offers a unique and potentially lucrative opportunity for sports bettors. While the risk is higher, the rewards can be significant if you apply strategic thinking, proper bankroll management, and thorough research. By understanding the concept of value betting, analyzing matchups, and using betting systems like the Kelly Criterion, you can make informed decisions and increase your chances of profiting from underdog wagers. Remember, betting on underdogs requires discipline, patience, and a willingness to look beyond surface-level odds to find real opportunities. Good luck!
