Betting on underdogs is a strategy that intrigues both novice and experienced bettors alike. While betting on the favorite often seems like the safer option, the potential rewards of backing an underdog can be significantly higher. However, successfully betting on underdogs requires a deep understanding of the sports you are betting on, an awareness of market inefficiencies, and a disciplined approach to risk management. In this article, we will explore advanced strategies for betting on underdogs in sports, backed by real-world examples and data, to help you increase your chances of success.
The Appeal of Betting on Underdogs
Higher Odds, Higher Payouts
One of the primary reasons bettors are drawn to underdogs is the potential for higher payouts. Underdogs typically have longer odds, meaning that if they win, the return on your bet can be substantial. For example, in the 2020 NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts, with odds of +300. A $100 bet on the Jaguars would have returned $400, including the initial stake.
The Element of Surprise
Sports are unpredictable, and upsets happen more frequently than you might expect. The element of surprise is what makes sports exciting, and it is also what gives underdog betting its appeal. Historical data shows that underdogs in certain sports and under specific conditions can be undervalued by bookmakers, providing opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize.
Understanding the Market Dynamics
Public Perception and Market Bias
One of the key factors that influence betting odds is public perception. The majority of bettors tend to favor well-known teams or athletes, leading to inflated odds for the favorites and undervalued odds for the underdogs. This market bias can create value betting opportunities for those willing to back the underdog.
For example, during the 2016 NCAA basketball tournament, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) was a 16-seed going up against the 1-seed Virginia Cavaliers. Public perception heavily favored Virginia, and as a result, UMBC was given odds of +2000. UMBC went on to make history by defeating Virginia, marking the first time a 16-seed had ever beaten a 1-seed in the tournament.
Identifying Value Bets
Value betting is the cornerstone of a successful underdog betting strategy. A value bet occurs when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the event occurring. To identify value bets, you need to conduct thorough research and analysis.
One method is to use implied probability, which can be calculated by converting the odds into a percentage. If you believe the true probability of the underdog winning is higher than the implied probability suggested by the odds, you have found a value bet.
For instance, if a team has odds of +400 (which implies a 20% chance of winning), but your analysis suggests they have a 30% chance, this is a value bet worth considering.
Key Factors to Consider When Betting on Underdogs
Team and Player Form
The form of a team or individual athlete is a critical factor when betting on underdogs. A team that has been performing well in recent games, even if they are considered the underdog, may be more likely to pull off an upset. Look for patterns in recent performances, such as improved defense, key players returning from injury, or strong results against top-tier teams.
In the 2017-2018 English Premier League season, Leicester City was often considered an underdog in matches against traditional powerhouses like Manchester United and Liverpool. However, their strong form and consistent performances, particularly in defense, led to several unexpected wins, offering profitable betting opportunities for those who backed them.
Head-to-Head Records
Historical head-to-head records can provide valuable insights when betting on underdogs. Some teams or athletes perform particularly well against specific opponents, even if they are generally considered weaker. This psychological edge can play a significant role in the outcome of a match.
For example, in tennis, Rafael Nadal has historically had an advantage over Roger Federer on clay courts, despite Federer often being the higher-ranked player. Betting on Nadal as the underdog in these matchups has proven profitable over the years, especially in tournaments like the French Open.
Home Advantage
Home advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in sports, and it can often be the deciding factor in underdog victories. Teams playing at home tend to perform better due to familiar surroundings, support from local fans, and reduced travel fatigue.
During the 2019 NBA playoffs, the Portland Trail Blazers were considered underdogs in their series against the Denver Nuggets. However, Portland’s strong home record and the passionate support of their fans at the Moda Center played a crucial role in their eventual series victory.
Situational Factors
Situational factors, such as weather conditions, travel schedules, and motivation levels, can all influence the outcome of a sporting event. Underdogs may have an advantage in adverse conditions that level the playing field or when they are more motivated due to external factors, such as avoiding relegation or seeking revenge for a previous loss.
In the 2017 Super Bowl, the New England Patriots were heavy favorites against the Atlanta Falcons. However, the Falcons’ aggressive playstyle and strong first-half performance saw them take a commanding lead. While the Patriots eventually won in overtime, those who bet on the Falcons as underdogs in the first half were rewarded with favorable odds.
Strategies for Betting on Underdogs
Spread Betting
Spread betting is a popular method for betting on underdogs, as it allows you to back a team to perform better than expected without necessarily winning the game. The spread represents the margin of victory or defeat, and betting on the underdog to "cover the spread" means you win the bet if they lose by a smaller margin than predicted or win outright.
For example, in a college football game between Alabama and Auburn, Alabama might be favored by 10 points. If you bet on Auburn to cover the spread as the underdog, they would need to lose by fewer than 10 points or win the game for your bet to pay out.
Moneyline Betting
Moneyline betting involves simply picking the winner of a game without any point spreads. This is the most straightforward form of betting and can be highly profitable when backing underdogs. However, because the odds are typically longer, it's essential to manage your bankroll carefully and avoid placing large bets on a single outcome.
In the 2019 MLB season, the Washington Nationals were underdogs in many of their postseason games, including the World Series. Those who placed moneyline bets on the Nationals reaped significant rewards as they went on to win the championship against the heavily favored Houston Astros.
Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting is a more advanced strategy that involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers to guarantee a profit, regardless of the result. This approach requires careful analysis of odds across multiple platforms and quick execution, but it can be particularly effective when betting on underdogs.
For example, if one bookmaker offers odds of +250 on an underdog and another offers -200 on the favorite, placing appropriate bets on both outcomes can lock in a profit. While arbitrage opportunities are rare and often short-lived, they can be highly lucrative when identified.
Emotional Discipline and Bankroll Management
Betting on underdogs can be emotionally challenging, especially when the favored team or athlete appears dominant. However, maintaining emotional discipline and sticking to a well-defined strategy is crucial for long-term success. Avoid the temptation to chase losses or increase your stakes after a few wins. Instead, focus on finding value bets and managing your bankroll effectively.
A good rule of thumb is to limit individual bets to a small percentage of your total bankroll, typically around 1-2%. This approach ensures that a losing streak won’t wipe out your entire betting fund and allows you to continue making strategic bets over the long term.
Real-World Example: Leicester City’s Premier League Triumph
One of the most famous underdog stories in sports history is Leicester City’s remarkable victory in the 2015-2016 English Premier League season. At the start of the season, bookmakers offered odds of 5000/1 for Leicester to win the league, reflecting their status as massive underdogs.
However, through a combination of tactical brilliance, team cohesion, and underestimation by opponents, Leicester defied the odds and went on to win the title. Those who bet on Leicester at the start of the season enjoyed unprecedented returns, demonstrating the potential rewards of backing underdogs in the right circumstances.
Conclusion
Betting on underdogs in sports can be a highly rewarding strategy, both financially and in terms of the excitement it brings. However, success requires more than just luck. By understanding market dynamics, identifying value bets, and employing disciplined strategies, you can increase your chances of profiting from underdog betting.
Whether you’re betting on a long-shot team in the Super Bowl, an unseeded player in a tennis tournament, or a lower-league team in a cup competition, the potential for big payouts makes underdog betting a thrilling aspect of sports wagering. With careful research, strategic thinking, and emotional discipline, you can turn the odds in your favor and make the most of this exciting betting opportunity.
