Video Poker

Analyzing Variance in Online Video Poker

Online video poker is one of the most popular casino games around, combining the strategy of poker with the thrill of slot machines. For both novice and seasoned players, understanding the concept of variance in video poker is key to improving your gameplay and managing your bankroll effectively. In this guide, we’ll take an in-depth look at what variance is, how it affects your betting strategy, and how you can use this knowledge to make better decisions while playing video poker.

What Is Variance in Online Video Poker?

Variance, in the context of online video poker, refers to the fluctuations or swings in the outcome of your gameplay over a period of time. Essentially, it is the measure of how much your results deviate from the expected outcome. Understanding variance is crucial for players because it helps them anticipate the ups and downs that come with the game, and how it will impact their bankroll over time.

In simpler terms, variance helps explain why, in the short term, you might experience both winning and losing streaks, and why those streaks can sometimes feel unpredictable. High variance means more significant swings in your results, while low variance results in smaller, more predictable outcomes.

Types of Variance: Low vs. High

The level of variance in a video poker game depends on the specific variant of the game you’re playing. Here’s a quick breakdown of the two main types of variance:

  • Low Variance: Games with low variance have frequent but smaller payouts. This type of game is ideal for players who prefer to maintain a steady bankroll and experience fewer drastic swings in their results. For example, "Jacks or Better" video poker typically offers low variance, as it frequently rewards players with small wins.
  • High Variance: High variance games are less predictable, with larger swings in results. These games offer bigger payouts but are less frequent. Players may go through long dry spells without hitting significant wins, only to have a large payout come in suddenly. "Deuces Wild" and "Double Bonus Poker" are examples of high variance video poker games.

Fun Fact: The level of variance can be a major factor in deciding which game to play. If you prefer the excitement of big payouts (and the chance of extended losing streaks), you might opt for a high variance game. If you like more consistency and smaller wins, low variance games are your go-to choice.

How Variance Affects Your Gameplay

Now that you understand what variance is, let’s explore how it directly affects your video poker gameplay and your approach to betting. Variance plays a vital role in the following areas:

1. Bankroll Management

Variance can have a significant impact on your bankroll, and understanding this is key to ensuring that you’re always prepared for the swings. In a low variance game, you can expect your bankroll to stay more stable, with smaller fluctuations in your balance. In a high variance game, however, you’ll experience larger swings, which means you’ll need a larger bankroll to weather the downsides.

For example, if you’re playing a high variance game like "Deuces Wild," you may go several hands without hitting a big payout. During this time, your bankroll could decrease significantly. However, a large payout could come at any moment, potentially boosting your balance significantly. In these cases, it’s essential to be prepared for the low points and manage your betting strategies accordingly.

Tip: Use bankroll management strategies, such as only betting a small percentage of your bankroll per session, to mitigate the risks of high variance games.

2. Hitting Big Payouts and Jackpot Potential

Another important way variance impacts your gameplay is through the frequency of hitting big payouts. High variance video poker games have the potential for larger, more infrequent wins, such as a royal flush or four-of-a-kind. However, hitting these hands takes patience and discipline. Because of the larger swings, you may experience long droughts without seeing significant returns.

On the other hand, low variance games offer smaller but more frequent wins, which can provide a steadier stream of income. While these games rarely offer huge payouts, the consistency of winning can help players feel more confident about their odds of success.

3. Emotional Control and the Psychology of Video Poker

Variance also influences the psychological aspect of video poker. When playing high variance games, players can experience extreme highs and lows, which may cause emotional reactions. A series of losses may lead to frustration or panic, while hitting a big win could lead to overconfidence or reckless betting. Managing these emotions is crucial to maintaining a clear head and making the best decisions in the game.

In low variance games, the fluctuations in your bankroll are less severe, and you might feel more in control of your game. However, even in low variance games, it's important to stay patient and focus on your strategy rather than getting bogged down by the occasional loss.

Analyzing Variance with Expected Value (EV) and Volatility

For advanced video poker players, variance can be further analyzed through mathematical concepts like Expected Value (EV) and Volatility. These calculations provide insights into the long-term profitability of a game and how much fluctuation you can expect over time.

1. Understanding Expected Value (EV)

Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept used to determine the average amount you can expect to win or lose per hand in the long run. It helps players assess whether a particular video poker game is profitable based on its paytable and the odds of hitting winning hands.

The formula for calculating EV in video poker is:

  • EV = (Probability of Winning Hand) x (Payout for That Hand) – (Probability of Losing Hand) x (Amount Bet)

By calculating the EV for each hand, you can determine whether the game is worth your time and money. For example, if the EV of a hand is positive, you can expect to make a profit in the long run. If it’s negative, the game may not be favorable to play.

2. Volatility and Variance Calculations

Volatility refers to how much a game’s results can vary over time. The higher the volatility, the more fluctuations you can expect in the outcomes. Volatility can be calculated using a formula that takes into account the frequency and size of the payouts, as well as the standard deviation of the game’s results.

In video poker, volatility is directly related to variance. High volatility games (like "Deuces Wild") will have more significant swings in your results, while low volatility games (like "Jacks or Better") offer more consistent payouts. Understanding this can help you choose the game that best suits your risk tolerance and bankroll management style.

How to Minimize the Impact of Variance in Your Video Poker Strategy

While variance is an inherent part of online video poker, there are ways to minimize its negative impact and increase your chances of success:

1. Choose the Right Game for Your Style

As discussed earlier, some video poker variants have lower variance than others. For beginners, low variance games like "Jacks or Better" are a good choice because they offer more frequent payouts. More experienced players may prefer high variance games like "Deuces Wild" for the larger potential payouts, but they must be prepared for the volatility.

2. Use Optimal Strategy

One of the most effective ways to reduce the impact of variance is to always play with the optimal strategy. This means making the best possible decisions with each hand, which in turn maximizes your Expected Value (EV). The optimal strategy varies by game, but generally, it involves decisions such as holding high cards, discarding low ones, and understanding when to bet maximum coins for the best payout potential.

3. Manage Your Bankroll Carefully

Effective bankroll management is one of the most important strategies for mitigating the effects of variance. Always bet a small percentage of your bankroll per session and set loss limits. This way, you can withstand the swings of high variance games without risking your entire bankroll.

Conclusion: Embracing Variance in Online Video Poker

Variance is an inevitable part of online video poker, but understanding how it works can help you develop strategies to manage your bankroll, stay in control emotionally, and ultimately enjoy a more profitable gaming experience. Whether you prefer high variance games with big payouts or low variance games for consistent wins, always remember to calculate your Expected Value (EV), use optimal strategy, and practice effective bankroll management.

By following these tips and embracing variance as part of your overall strategy, you’ll be well-equipped to make smarter decisions and improve your video poker experience. Keep practicing, stay patient, and most importantly, enjoy the game!

♤ This article was originally published on August 26, 2024, and was updated on January 12, 2025, to maintain accuracy and relevance.